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【6月24日】【管理科学与工程学院学术系列讲座预告】The Local Multiplier Effects of International Trade: Theory and Evidence from China
张俊富，现为美国克拉克大学经济系教授，博士研究生项目主任，留美经济学会侯任会长。其主要研究领域为城市经济学和劳动经济学，研究兴趣包括中国的城市化和区域发展，企业家才能与就业创造，高科技产业集聚，种族居住隔离等。研究成果发表在Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Urban Economics，Regional Science and Urban Economics，Journal of Regional Science，Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization，Journal of Evolutionary Economics，China Economic Review，Small Business Economics等学术期刊。
We estimate the local multiplier effects of exports on GDP and employment at the city level in China. Based on Eaton and Kortum (2002), we first build a two-sector multicity general equilibrium model to examine the mechanisms through which the local multiplier effects arise. We show that the export-GDP multiplier is determined by five sufficient statistics: the share of labor in local production, the share of tradable intermediate inputs in local production, the within-city expenditure share in the tradable sector, the share of other cities’ expenditure on tradable goods produced in the city, and the share of consumption expenditure on tradable goods. In addition to these factors, the export-employment multiplier also depends on local employment and the wage elasticity of employment. Using 1999-2014 city level panel data, we find that every 1000 yuan of gross exports in a city generates 919 yuan in local GDP. Moreover, a one million yuan increase in gross exports creates 5.8 jobs; for every 100 new jobs in the tradable sector, 77 new jobs are created in the non-tradable sector. To address the endogeneity of changes in local exports, we use an instrumental variable that combines the changed tariffs on Chinese goods and cross-city variations in the composition of exporting industries. Looking into different sectors of the local economy, we find that exports have the largest effect on GDP and employment in the manufacturing sector and little effect in the agricultural sector. The export-GDP and export-employment multiplier effects are heterogeneous across cities. Finally, we estimate the export-GDP and export-employment multipliers for each city in China using the formulas from the theoretical model.
主持人：郑亮 管理科学与工程学院 副教授
时间：2019年6月24日 周一 上午 10:30—11:50